Statistical Adjustment Model Summary for South Carolina

This is a summary of the key elements derived from the statistical adjustment models developed for PY 2020-2021. For each individual performance indicator there are plots that show how the actual level of performance for South Carolina in PY 2018 compared to all states and how the predicted level of performance (i.e., Estimate0) for South Carolina in PY 2020 compares to the predicted levels for all states. There are also tables that give all the relevant model estimates and pre-PY 2020 data for all of the model variables. In addition, the last tab has a table that identifies all the variables included in each individual indicator model.

Adult

Specific model data for each performance indicator in the Adult program are below.

Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 80.0% for South Carolina for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 0.831) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-0.031).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female 0.1302 0.5098 6.64%
Age 25 to 44 -0.0308 0.6115 -1.89%
Age 45 to 54 -0.1545 0.1676 -2.59%
Age 55 to 59 -0.0779 0.0504 -0.39%
Age 60 or more -0.5993 0.0181 -1.08%
Hispanic Ethnicity 0.0815 0.0388 0.32%
Race: Asian -0.2333 0.0052 -0.12%
Race: Black 0.0861 0.6199 5.34%
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -0.1320 0.0032 -0.04%
Race: American Indian 0.0501 0.0117 0.06%
Race: Multiple -0.1183 0.0166 -0.20%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.1257 0.6202 -7.79%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.1221 0.1151 -1.41%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 0.0978 0.0277 0.27%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree -0.0773 0.0697 -0.54%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree 0.1722 0.0603 1.04%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -0.1430 0.0154 -0.22%
Employed at Program Entry 0.1964 0.3626 7.12%
In School at Program Entry 0.1265 0.0525 0.66%
Individual with a Disability -0.1813 0.0356 -0.64%
Veteran 0.2901 0.0694 2.01%
Limited English Proficiency -0.0306 0.0093 -0.03%
Single Parent -0.0942 0.1180 -1.11%
Low Income 0.0081 0.4757 0.39%
Homeless -0.0534 0.0102 -0.05%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.1550 0.0860 1.33%
Displaced Homemaker -0.1842 0.0023 -0.04%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.1889 0.6951 13.13%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 0.0157 0.0423 0.07%
UI Claimant -0.0148 0.1580 -0.23%
UI Exhaustee 0.1394 0.0073 0.10%
Supportive Services Recipient 0.0620 0.2824 1.75%
Received Needs-related Payments 0.4886 0.0000 0.00%
Received Other Public Assistance -0.0494 0.0000 0.00%
SSI or SSDI Recipient -0.0205 0.0163 -0.03%
TANF Recipient 0.0438 0.0035 0.02%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services 0.0220 0.8691 1.92%
Median Days in Program -0.0002 154.0000 -2.82%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 2.1266 0.0060 1.27%
Construction Employment 0.8615 0.0496 4.28%
Manufacturing Employment 0.1897 0.1209 2.29%
Information Services Employment -5.3312 0.0141 -7.53%
Financial Services Employment -4.8664 0.0483 -23.50%
Professional and Business Services Employment 3.7575 0.1418 53.29%
Educational or Health Care Employment 0.8235 0.2119 17.45%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment -0.8923 0.1280 -11.42%
Other Services Employment 4.5274 0.0256 11.59%
Public Administration 2.2149 0.0550 12.18%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted 0.6822 0.0334 2.28%

Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of $5,848 for South Carolina for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 41434) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-35586).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -2841.0668 0.5162 -$1,466
Age 25 to 44 -862.0930 0.6153 -$530
Age 45 to 54 -3144.2089 0.1602 -$504
Age 55 to 59 -5290.3216 0.0476 -$252
Age 60 or more -6059.0062 0.0156 -$95
Hispanic Ethnicity 232.4254 0.0349 $8
Race: Asian -4413.8578 0.0044 -$19
Race: Black -2324.8593 0.6389 -$1,485
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -6352.7320 0.0036 -$23
Race: American Indian -2692.4326 0.0113 -$30
Race: Multiple 6983.7945 0.0167 $117
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency 362.0217 0.6204 $225
Highest Grade Completed: Some College 826.8902 0.1188 $98
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -1324.3050 0.0291 -$38
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 5643.1853 0.0701 $396
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree 4052.0797 0.0574 $233
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree 8539.9365 0.0163 $140
Employed at Program Entry 965.0801 0.3959 $382
In School at Program Entry 3623.2012 0.0563 $204
Individual with a Disability -989.2237 0.0272 -$27
Veteran -1349.3089 0.0657 -$89
Limited English Proficiency -4419.8922 0.0069 -$31
Single Parent 145.7630 0.1264 $18
Low Income -332.4067 0.4446 -$148
Homeless -446.4262 0.0080 -$4
Individual who was Incarcerated 2013.3031 0.0795 $160
Displaced Homemaker -1947.9185 0.0025 -$5
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 807.6246 0.7588 $613
Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.3653 4464.5600 $1,631
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 2011.8227 0.0356 $72
UI Claimant 685.8891 0.1616 $111
UI Exhaustee -2567.3504 0.0058 -$15
Supportive Services Recipient 912.9138 0.2931 $268
Received Needs-related Payments 15112.5289 0.0000 $0
Received Other Public Assistance 107.5299 0.0000 $0
SSI or SSDI Recipient -5911.8510 0.0113 -$67
TANF Recipient 840.8641 0.0036 $3
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -205.4928 0.8761 -$180
Median Days in Program 3.2489 155.0000 $504
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 24063.8444 0.0060 $144
Construction Employment 32326.4938 0.0496 $1,605
Manufacturing Employment 39237.2625 0.1209 $4,742
Information Services Employment -48189.2565 0.0141 -$681
Financial Services Employment 4074.2901 0.0483 $197
Professional and Business Services Employment 96754.4484 0.1418 $13,723
Educational or Health Care Employment 56163.1547 0.2119 $11,900
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 57668.0011 0.1280 $7,379
Other Services Employment 10767.7935 0.0256 $276
Public Administration 39658.6388 0.0550 $2,181
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -6106.3827 0.0334 -$204

Measurable Skill Gains

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 55.1% for South Carolina for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 6.744) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-6.192).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -0.3614 0.5180 -18.72%
Age 25 to 44 0.5218 0.6275 32.74%
Age 45 to 54 -0.0702 0.1518 -1.07%
Age 55 to 59 -0.9975 0.0364 -3.63%
Age 60 or more 2.9217 0.0173 5.06%
Hispanic Ethnicity -1.4456 0.0419 -6.06%
Race: Asian 2.1310 0.0097 2.07%
Race: Black -0.5671 0.6195 -35.13%
Race: American Indian 0.8520 0.0184 1.56%
Race: Multiple 1.9759 0.0236 4.66%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.1218 0.6150 -7.49%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.1842 0.1358 -2.50%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 0.0731 0.0350 0.26%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree -0.8544 0.0672 -5.74%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree -0.2005 0.0499 -1.00%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree 1.8387 0.0107 1.98%
Employed at Program Entry 0.3647 0.4158 15.16%
In School at Program Entry -0.3045 0.0877 -2.67%
Individual with a Disability -0.2611 0.0499 -1.30%
Veteran 0.2508 0.0575 1.44%
Limited English Proficiency 0.8810 0.0135 1.19%
Single Parent 0.2135 0.1584 3.38%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.7809 0.1337 10.44%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation -0.0013 0.6888 -0.09%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 0.0652 0.0752 0.49%
UI Exhaustee 0.0104 0.0052 0.01%
Supportive Services Recipient -0.1297 0.6244 -8.10%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 0.4929 0.0201 0.99%
TANF Recipient -0.2848 0.0042 -0.12%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services 0.0732 0.8292 6.07%
Median Days in Program 0.0004 159.0000 5.64%
Median Days Enrolled in Education or Training -0.0002 86.0000 -2.10%
Percent Enrolled in Education or Training Under 30 Days -0.0087 0.1480 -0.13%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 10.0155 0.0060 5.98%
Construction Employment 8.9287 0.0496 44.33%
Manufacturing Employment 12.1240 0.1209 146.53%
Information Services Employment -43.8313 0.0141 -61.91%
Financial Services Employment 31.7234 0.0483 153.20%
Professional and Business Services Employment 7.5758 0.1418 107.45%
Educational or Health Care Employment 9.9286 0.2119 210.37%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 2.5813 0.1280 33.03%
Other Services Employment 32.8685 0.0256 84.17%
Public Administration -0.1431 0.0550 -0.79%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -13.5535 0.0334 -45.31%

Dislocated Worker

Specific model data for each performance indicator in the Dislocated Worker program are below.

Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 80.5% for South Carolina for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of -1.799) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (2.604).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female 0.0596 0.5265 3.14%
Age 25 to 44 0.0189 0.4091 0.77%
Age 45 to 54 -0.0169 0.3371 -0.57%
Age 55 to 59 0.1060 0.1439 1.53%
Age 60 or more -0.1905 0.0833 -1.59%
Hispanic Ethnicity 0.1185 0.0265 0.31%
Race: Asian -0.2910 0.0114 -0.33%
Race: Black -0.0358 0.4318 -1.55%
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander 0.8792 0.0013 0.11%
Race: American Indian -0.0983 0.0076 -0.07%
Race: Multiple -0.1947 0.0051 -0.10%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.0259 0.4949 -1.28%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.1942 0.1604 -3.11%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -0.1799 0.0417 -0.75%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree -0.0907 0.0732 -0.66%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree -0.1447 0.1199 -1.74%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -0.1210 0.0480 -0.58%
Employed at Program Entry 0.1061 0.1452 1.54%
In School at Program Entry -0.0254 0.0253 -0.06%
Individual with a Disability -0.0527 0.0240 -0.13%
Veteran 0.0056 0.1098 0.06%
Limited English Proficiency -0.2521 0.0063 -0.16%
Single Parent 0.0446 0.0492 0.22%
Low Income -0.0518 0.1414 -0.73%
Homeless 0.0306 0.0013 0.00%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.3775 0.0240 0.91%
Displaced Homemaker -0.2274 0.0088 -0.20%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.1131 0.9407 10.64%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 0.0574 0.0126 0.07%
UI Claimant 0.0208 0.4583 0.95%
UI Exhaustee 0.0737 0.0467 0.34%
Supportive Services Recipient 0.0496 0.1780 0.88%
Received Needs-related Payments -0.4938 0.0000 0.00%
Received Other Public Assistance -0.1259 0.0000 0.00%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 0.8134 0.0000 0.00%
TANF Recipient -0.5301 0.0101 -0.54%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -0.0512 0.9874 -5.06%
Median Days in Program 0.0000 221.0000 0.18%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -2.0224 0.0060 -1.21%
Construction Employment -0.4670 0.0496 -2.32%
Manufacturing Employment -1.7064 0.1209 -20.62%
Information Services Employment -9.8998 0.0141 -13.98%
Financial Services Employment -6.2744 0.0483 -30.30%
Professional and Business Services Employment -3.6027 0.1418 -51.10%
Educational or Health Care Employment -1.9946 0.2119 -42.26%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment -2.8519 0.1280 -36.49%
Other Services Employment 3.0428 0.0256 7.79%
Public Administration 1.2295 0.0550 6.76%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted 0.4118 0.0334 1.38%

Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of $7,900 for South Carolina for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 37556) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-29656).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -1901.3415 0.5223 -$993
Age 25 to 44 1115.5154 0.4222 $471
Age 45 to 54 -125.9873 0.3405 -$43
Age 55 to 59 -2126.3785 0.1418 -$301
Age 60 or more -2492.9312 0.0678 -$169
Hispanic Ethnicity -857.7550 0.0247 -$21
Race: Asian -4684.9713 0.0092 -$43
Race: Black -1536.6027 0.4499 -$691
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -3269.1753 0.0015 -$5
Race: American Indian -3522.2138 0.0062 -$22
Race: Multiple -3712.0594 0.0062 -$23
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -1400.0970 0.4992 -$699
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -1902.9048 0.1649 -$314
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 83.4151 0.0385 $3
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 1526.2402 0.0770 $118
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree 1169.4179 0.1263 $148
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree 2155.0497 0.0447 $96
Employed at Program Entry 1700.7794 0.1556 $265
In School at Program Entry 3787.5103 0.0277 $105
Individual with a Disability 279.5931 0.0216 $6
Veteran 1445.8344 0.1125 $163
Limited English Proficiency -2976.1328 0.0077 -$23
Single Parent -784.4348 0.0524 -$41
Low Income -538.7097 0.1356 -$73
Homeless 7893.8250 0.0015 $12
Individual who was Incarcerated 1805.9783 0.0247 $45
Displaced Homemaker 192.7564 0.0092 $2
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 21.0817 0.9507 $20
Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.0917 9295.5200 $852
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 1348.3682 0.0108 $15
UI Claimant 68.6962 0.4700 $32
UI Exhaustee -2493.0132 0.0447 -$111
Supportive Services Recipient 176.1628 0.1741 $31
Received Needs-related Payments 6660.1906 0.0000 $0
Received Other Public Assistance 470.0451 0.0000 $0
SSI or SSDI Recipient -2105.8014 0.0000 $0
TANF Recipient -4222.3011 0.0092 -$39
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -403.3425 0.9861 -$398
Median Days in Program 2.2222 220.5000 $490
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -27241.5941 0.0060 -$163
Construction Employment 36651.6742 0.0496 $1,820
Manufacturing Employment 47186.5858 0.1209 $5,703
Information Services Employment -260263.7041 0.0141 -$3,676
Financial Services Employment 85893.1957 0.0483 $4,148
Professional and Business Services Employment 95022.1320 0.1418 $13,477
Educational or Health Care Employment 51172.3083 0.2119 $10,843
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 43978.6506 0.1280 $5,627
Other Services Employment -4546.6888 0.0256 -$116
Public Administration 22271.2780 0.0550 $1,225
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -5795.6816 0.0334 -$194

Measurable Skill Gains

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 57.1% for South Carolina for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 5.841) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-5.271).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -0.1509 0.5854 -8.84%
Age 25 to 44 -0.0655 0.4179 -2.74%
Age 45 to 54 0.2414 0.3113 7.52%
Age 55 to 59 0.4579 0.1438 6.59%
Age 60 or more 0.9139 0.0948 8.66%
Hispanic Ethnicity -0.6646 0.0220 -1.46%
Race: Asian -0.5340 0.0068 -0.36%
Race: Black -0.3293 0.4704 -15.49%
Race: American Indian 2.6465 0.0102 2.69%
Race: Multiple 0.0503 0.0152 0.08%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.1922 0.4907 -9.43%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.2384 0.1438 -3.43%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -0.2607 0.0355 -0.93%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 0.2625 0.1015 2.67%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree -0.1123 0.1354 -1.52%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -0.4275 0.0440 -1.88%
Employed at Program Entry -0.0215 0.0964 -0.21%
In School at Program Entry -0.2643 0.0220 -0.58%
Individual with a Disability -1.4481 0.0220 -3.19%
Veteran -0.9235 0.0575 -5.31%
Limited English Proficiency 0.4514 0.0051 0.23%
Single Parent 0.3691 0.0338 1.25%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.4693 0.0186 0.87%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.0287 0.9442 2.71%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 0.3881 0.0525 2.04%
UI Exhaustee 0.3561 0.0406 1.45%
Supportive Services Recipient -0.0615 0.4805 -2.96%
SSI or SSDI Recipient -0.4356 0.0000 0.00%
TANF Recipient -3.8716 0.0034 -1.31%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -0.0963 0.9898 -9.53%
Median Days in Program -0.0003 244.0000 -7.84%
Median Days Enrolled in Education or Training -0.0003 133.0000 -3.64%
Percent Enrolled in Education or Training Under 30 Days 0.1620 0.0863 1.40%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -8.0806 0.0060 -4.83%
Construction Employment 4.4493 0.0496 22.09%
Manufacturing Employment 9.8551 0.1209 119.11%
Information Services Employment -58.7056 0.0141 -82.92%
Financial Services Employment 12.1977 0.0483 58.91%
Professional and Business Services Employment 16.0554 0.1418 227.72%
Educational or Health Care Employment 7.1634 0.2119 151.78%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 1.5122 0.1280 19.35%
Other Services Employment 65.3154 0.0256 167.26%
Public Administration -2.8478 0.0550 -15.66%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -10.8237 0.0334 -36.18%

Youth

Specific model data for each performance indicator in the Youth program are below.

Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 77.3% for South Carolina for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of -0.988) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (1.761).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female 0.0595 0.5260 3.13%
Age 14 to 15 0.1226 0.0012 0.01%
Age 16 to 17 -0.1436 0.1609 -2.31%
Age 18 to 19 -0.2054 0.3359 -6.90%
Age 20 to 21 0.0105 0.2259 0.24%
Hispanic Ethnicity -0.0628 0.0486 -0.30%
Race: Asian 0.1989 0.0064 0.13%
Race: Black -0.0414 0.5565 -2.30%
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -0.5342 0.0035 -0.19%
Race: American Indian -0.3341 0.0152 -0.51%
Race: Multiple 0.1508 0.0334 0.50%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency 0.0691 0.4289 2.97%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.3127 0.0152 -0.48%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 1.1469 0.0023 0.27%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate or Bachelor Degree 0.4935 0.0070 0.35%
Employed at Program Entry 0.2748 0.2697 7.41%
In School at Program Entry 0.0356 0.0310 0.11%
Individual with a Disability -0.0469 0.0848 -0.40%
Limited English Proficiency -0.1392 0.0047 -0.07%
Low Income 0.0375 0.7039 2.64%
Homeless -0.2008 0.0205 -0.41%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.0635 0.1170 0.74%
Foster Care Youth -0.0100 0.0088 -0.01%
Youth Parent or Pregnant Youth -0.0716 0.2668 -1.91%
Skills/Literacy Deficient at Program Entry 0.0349 0.5073 1.77%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry -0.0867 0.0386 -0.33%
UI Claimant -0.0433 0.0293 -0.13%
Supportive Services Recipient 0.0442 0.5576 2.46%
Received Needs-related Payments 0.7660 0.0000 0.00%
Received Other Public Assistance -0.1510 0.0012 -0.02%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 0.0743 0.0129 0.10%
TANF Recipient -0.0341 0.0105 -0.04%
Pell Grant Recipient 0.0368 0.0129 0.05%
Youth Needing Additional Assistance 0.0005 0.3312 0.02%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services 0.0148 0.7712 1.14%
Median Days in Program 0.0000 215.0000 -0.86%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -6.7872 0.0060 -4.06%
Construction Employment -1.8800 0.0496 -9.33%
Manufacturing Employment -1.3602 0.1209 -16.44%
Information Services Employment -7.2974 0.0141 -10.31%
Financial Services Employment -2.1367 0.0483 -10.32%
Professional and Business Services Employment -2.5564 0.1418 -36.26%
Educational or Health Care Employment 0.0247 0.2119 0.52%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment -0.3944 0.1280 -5.05%
Other Services Employment -10.7940 0.0256 -27.64%
Public Administration 3.2993 0.0550 18.14%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -1.4872 0.0334 -4.97%

Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of $3,515 for South Carolina for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 14259) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-10744).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -1877.4943 0.5128 -$962.86
Age 14 to 15 -92.3013 0.0016 -$0.14
Age 16 to 17 -1309.0587 0.1463 -$191.52
Age 18 to 19 -1066.4762 0.3331 -$355.22
Age 20 to 21 649.4931 0.2319 $150.62
Hispanic Ethnicity 1913.4585 0.0412 $78.92
Race: Asian 649.7122 0.0039 $2.53
Race: Black -886.3703 0.5681 -$503.54
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -3388.4232 0.0039 -$13.18
Race: American Indian -184.4720 0.0163 -$3.01
Race: Multiple 933.1134 0.0311 $29.05
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency 1383.9408 0.4661 $645.12
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -828.1913 0.0202 -$16.76
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 173.0955 0.0023 $0.40
Highest Grade Completed: Associate or Bachelor Degree 6672.3330 0.0070 $46.73
Employed at Program Entry 613.7857 0.3206 $196.79
In School at Program Entry 546.1994 0.0249 $13.60
Individual with a Disability -495.1811 0.0763 -$37.76
Limited English Proficiency 2456.3023 0.0016 $3.82
Low Income -305.7985 0.6817 -$208.47
Homeless 983.9044 0.0140 $13.78
Individual who was Incarcerated -1284.6596 0.1089 -$139.96
Foster Care Youth 1009.8293 0.0086 $8.64
Youth Parent or Pregnant Youth 854.5128 0.2646 $226.10
Skills/Literacy Deficient at Program Entry -283.4775 0.4864 -$137.88
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry -630.2664 0.0342 -$21.58
UI Claimant -462.5838 0.0358 -$16.56
Supportive Services Recipient 161.1750 0.5712 $92.06
Received Needs-related Payments 2823.2240 0.0000 $0.00
Received Other Public Assistance -184.0786 0.0016 -$0.29
SSI or SSDI Recipient -1658.7545 0.0086 -$14.20
TANF Recipient -539.6509 0.0086 -$4.62
Pell Grant Recipient 104.1843 0.0140 $1.46
Youth Needing Additional Assistance -4.3341 0.3494 -$1.51
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -27.8731 0.7759 -$21.63
Median Days in Program 0.5942 214.5000 $127.46
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -3172.1958 0.0060 -$18.95
Construction Employment 10994.4772 0.0496 $545.81
Manufacturing Employment 21559.9593 0.1209 $2,605.81
Information Services Employment -55465.6493 0.0141 -$783.40
Financial Services Employment 44805.1055 0.0483 $2,163.81
Professional and Business Services Employment 14219.0161 0.1418 $2,016.73
Educational or Health Care Employment 20372.0444 0.2119 $4,316.57
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 7088.2477 0.1280 $906.95
Other Services Employment 57026.8505 0.0256 $1,460.38
Public Administration 43573.5139 0.0550 $2,395.78
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -10090.2192 0.0334 -$337.31

Measurable Skill Gains

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 56.4% for South Carolina for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 4.177) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-3.613).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -0.2758 0.5483 -15.12%
Age 14 to 15 -0.8106 0.0155 -1.26%
Age 16 to 17 -0.9025 0.2271 -20.50%
Age 18 to 19 -0.6998 0.3337 -23.35%
Age 20 to 21 -1.6404 0.1866 -30.61%
Hispanic Ethnicity -0.0170 0.0640 -0.11%
Race: Asian -0.0162 0.0075 -0.01%
Race: Black 0.0042 0.5688 0.24%
Race: American Indian -0.1578 0.0140 -0.22%
Race: Multiple 1.9727 0.0355 7.01%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.2692 0.3402 -9.16%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College 1.0513 0.0180 1.89%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -0.6449 0.0035 -0.23%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate or Bachelor Degree 1.9000 0.0070 1.33%
In School at Program Entry 0.0220 0.1146 0.25%
Skills/Literacy Deficient at Program Entry 0.1976 0.5318 10.51%
UI Claimant 0.0198 0.0215 0.04%
Supportive Services Recipient -0.0712 0.6218 -4.43%
Received Other Public Assistance 0.2742 0.0000 0.00%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 0.5536 0.0160 0.89%
Pell Grant Recipient -0.8864 0.0120 -1.06%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -0.0503 0.5713 -2.87%
Median Days Enrolled in Education or Training -0.0003 115.0000 -3.75%
Percent Enrolled in Education or Training Under 30 Days -0.3441 0.1936 -6.66%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 7.6282 0.0060 4.56%
Construction Employment 9.5740 0.0496 47.53%
Manufacturing Employment 5.8313 0.1209 70.48%
Information Services Employment -42.8136 0.0141 -60.47%
Financial Services Employment -14.2433 0.0483 -68.79%
Professional and Business Services Employment 14.4769 0.1418 205.33%
Educational or Health Care Employment 7.0634 0.2119 149.67%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 6.2993 0.1280 80.60%
Other Services Employment 50.8391 0.0256 130.19%
Public Administration -7.3408 0.0550 -40.36%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -1.1663 0.0334 -3.90%

Wagner-Peyser

Specific model data for each performance indicator in the Wagner-Peyser program are below.

Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 70.4% for South Carolina for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 1.209) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-0.505).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female 0.0801 0.4637 3.71%
Age 25 to 44 0.1086 0.4892 5.31%
Age 45 to 54 -0.0860 0.1945 -1.67%
Age 55 to 59 -0.0070 0.0835 -0.06%
Age 60 or more -0.0629 0.0790 -0.50%
Hispanic Ethnicity 0.2326 0.0371 0.86%
Race: Asian -0.2354 0.0065 -0.15%
Race: Black -0.1609 0.5222 -8.40%
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander 0.9703 0.0017 0.17%
Race: American Indian -0.3062 0.0105 -0.32%
Race: Multiple 0.2471 0.0125 0.31%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.0172 0.5273 -0.91%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College 0.0386 0.1611 0.62%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -0.0422 0.0258 -0.11%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 0.3496 0.0505 1.77%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree -0.6768 0.0676 -4.58%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -0.5246 0.0217 -1.14%
Employed at Program Entry 0.0865 0.2240 1.94%
In School at Program Entry -0.0903 0.0500 -0.45%
Individual with a Disability -0.3557 0.0321 -1.14%
Veteran 0.2170 0.0704 1.53%
Limited English Proficiency -0.0185 0.0009 0.00%
Single Parent 0.2027 0.0080 0.16%
Low Income 0.0926 0.0476 0.44%
Homeless -0.0667 0.0069 -0.05%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.1850 0.0078 0.14%
Displaced Homemaker -0.2304 0.0013 -0.03%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.3174 0.7520 23.87%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry -0.1541 0.0054 -0.08%
UI Claimant -0.0385 0.4893 -1.88%
UI Exhaustee -0.0897 0.0091 -0.08%
Supportive Services Recipient -0.1026 0.0240 -0.25%
Received Needs-related Payments -9.8950 0.0000 0.00%
Received Other Public Assistance -0.1163 0.0000 0.00%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 1.0873 0.0013 0.14%
TANF Recipient -0.5680 0.0006 -0.04%
Median Days in Program -0.0003 52.0000 -1.43%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 1.6856 0.0060 1.01%
Construction Employment 1.5411 0.0496 7.65%
Manufacturing Employment 1.0127 0.1209 12.24%
Information Services Employment -0.4595 0.0141 -0.65%
Financial Services Employment 2.9649 0.0483 14.32%
Professional and Business Services Employment 0.9431 0.1418 13.38%
Educational or Health Care Employment 1.2831 0.2119 27.19%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 0.5919 0.1280 7.57%
Other Services Employment 3.9021 0.0256 9.99%
Public Administration 1.7006 0.0550 9.35%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted 0.3440 0.0334 1.15%

Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of $5,360 for South Carolina for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 39456) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-34096).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -2774.8460 0.4750 -$1,318
Age 25 to 44 1526.7709 0.5081 $776
Age 45 to 54 223.6212 0.1926 $43
Age 55 to 59 1725.9534 0.0782 $135
Age 60 or more 3989.3863 0.0590 $236
Hispanic Ethnicity 1506.2736 0.0310 $47
Race: Asian -1285.7589 0.0056 -$7
Race: Black -2926.8319 0.5508 -$1,612
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -2473.0352 0.0017 -$4
Race: American Indian -5567.8497 0.0101 -$56
Race: Multiple 10678.0968 0.0127 $135
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -1763.8797 0.5387 -$950
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -2177.4526 0.1661 -$362
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -2180.3190 0.0268 -$58
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 2095.5471 0.0520 $109
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree 72.8128 0.0653 $5
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -5012.8376 0.0196 -$98
Employed at Program Entry 456.1906 0.2469 $113
In School at Program Entry -1155.2072 0.0514 -$59
Individual with a Disability -5107.0692 0.0253 -$129
Veteran -913.8967 0.0647 -$59
Limited English Proficiency 1563.7512 0.0009 $1
Single Parent 660.1018 0.0091 $6
Low Income 634.4633 0.0469 $30
Homeless -3513.0948 0.0054 -$19
Individual who was Incarcerated 1920.7679 0.0077 $15
Displaced Homemaker -10834.3804 0.0012 -$13
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation -219.4792 0.8487 -$186
Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.2612 5384.5100 $1,406
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 771.2849 0.0044 $3
UI Claimant 454.7967 0.5110 $232
UI Exhaustee 247.9889 0.0089 $2
Supportive Services Recipient -636.3855 0.0275 -$18
Received Needs-related Payments -21804.7067 0.0000 $0
Received Other Public Assistance -1174.5793 0.0000 -$0
SSI or SSDI Recipient 10874.7587 0.0008 $8
TANF Recipient 1657.8393 0.0008 $1
Median Days in Program 0.8717 53.0000 $46
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 37057.6079 0.0060 $221
Construction Employment 42760.7710 0.0496 $2,123
Manufacturing Employment 47700.8708 0.1209 $5,765
Information Services Employment 11314.8086 0.0141 $160
Financial Services Employment 62614.6797 0.0483 $3,024
Professional and Business Services Employment 67885.3402 0.1418 $9,628
Educational or Health Care Employment 51491.7764 0.2119 $10,910
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 43018.4305 0.1280 $5,504
Other Services Employment 41629.7443 0.0256 $1,066
Public Administration 51356.2602 0.0550 $2,824
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -5089.3910 0.0334 -$170

Full Model Variable Table

The table below shows which variables are included in which models. It also includes both the variable names used in the modeling process and the full name of the variables.

Variable Names
Adult
Dislocated Worker
Youth
Wagner-Peyser
Model Variable Full Variable Name Q2ER ME MSG Q2ER ME MSG Q2ER ME MSG Q2ER ME
female Female x x x x x x x x x x x
age1415 Age 14 to 15 x x x
age1617 Age 16 to 17 x x x
age1819 Age 18 to 19 x x x
age2021 Age 20 to 21 x x x
age2544 Age 25 to 44 x x x x x x x x
age4554 Age 45 to 54 x x x x x x x x
age5559 Age 55 to 59 x x x x x x x x
age60 Age 60 or more x x x x x x x x
hispanic Hispanic Ethnicity x x x x x x x x x x x
raceasian Race: Asian x x x x x x x x x x x
raceblack Race: Black x x x x x x x x x x x
racehpi Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander x x x x x x x x
raceai Race: American Indian x x x x x x x x x x x
racemulti Race: Multiple x x x x x x x x x x x
hsgrad Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency x x x x x x x x x x x
collegedropout Highest Grade Completed: Some College x x x x x x x x x x x
certotherps Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree x x x x x x x x x x x
associate Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree x x x x x x x x
ba Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree x x x x x x x x
associateorba Highest Grade Completed: Associate or Bachelor Degree x x x
gradschool Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree x x x x x x x x
empentry Employed at Program Entry x x x x x x x x x x
edstatentry In School at Program Entry x x x x x x x x x x x
disabled Individual with a Disability x x x x x x x x x x
veteran Veteran x x x x x x x x
englearner Limited English Proficiency x x x x x x x x x x
singleparent Single Parent x x x x x x x x
lowinc Low Income x x x x x x x x
homeless Homeless x x x x x x x x
offender Individual who was Incarcerated x x x x x x x x x x
dishomemaker Displaced Homemaker x x x x x x
yfoster Foster Care Youth x x
yparent Youth Parent or Pregnant Youth x x
basiclitdeficient Skills/Literacy Deficient at Program Entry x x x
recwages2qprior Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation x x x x x x x x
wages2qprior Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation x x x
longtermunemp Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry x x x x x x x x x x
uiclaimant UI Claimant x x x x x x x x x
uiexhaustee UI Exhaustee x x x x x x x x
recsuppserv Supportive Services Recipient x x x x x x x x x x x
recneeds Received Needs-related Payments x x x x x x x x
recotherasst Received Other Public Assistance x x x x x x x x x
recssi SSI or SSDI Recipient x x x x x x x x x x x
rectanf TANF Recipient x x x x x x x x x x
recpell Pell Grant Recipient x
ynaa Youth Needing Additional Assistance x x
wp Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services x x x x x x x x x
daysinprog Median Days in Program x x x x x x x x x x
daysenrolled Median Days Enrolled in Education or Training x x x
daysenrolled_under30 Percent Enrolled in Education or Training Under 30 Days x x x
natresources Natural Resources Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
construction Construction Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
manufacturing Manufacturing Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
information Information Services Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
financial Financial Services Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
business Professional and Business Services Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
edhealthcare Educational or Health Care Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
leisure Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
otheremp Other Services Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
publicadmin Public Administration x x x x x x x x x x x
ur Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted x x x x x x x x x x x